Macro Matters January 2024

2 February

(Source: Merlea Macro Matters) Summary  Key factors to monitor for the 2024 global economic outlook include - US interest rates, oil prices and the Chinese economy.   The resilience of the world economy in 2023 surpassed initial...[Read More]

Macro Matters December 2023

18 December

(Source: Merlea Macro Matters) Tis the season for financial reflection, as we unwrap the present state of markets. Summary Exploring the recent dynamics in the financial markets reveals a compelling narrative. The Federal Reserve's decision...[Read More]

Macro Matters November 2023

10 November

(Source: Merlea Macro Matters) Summary The global economic landscape is navigating uncertain terrain, with various factors impacting both developed and emerging markets. While the spectre of a recession hasn't fully materialised, it's becoming...[Read More]

Macro Matters October 2023

19 October

(Source: Merlea Macro Matters)  Summary  In September, global stock markets encountered challenges influenced by factors such as concerns about economic growth and expectations regarding interest rates. While the US experienced positive outcomes...[Read More]

Macro Matters September 2023

22 September

(Source: Merlea Macro Matters) Summary Global GDP stagnated in the second quarter of 2022 and output declined in the G20 economies. While it is likely that growth in the third quarter has been positive, helped by a pick-up in China, several...[Read More]

Macro Matters August 2023

25 August

(Source: Merlea Macro Matters) Summary Global inflation continued to slow broadly, fuelling hope that central banks would begin to ease up on their aggressive tightening policies. Despite the optimism, however, core inflation in most developed...[Read More]

Macro Matters July 2023

4 August

(Source: Merlea Macro Matters) Summary Bond yields rose in many countries, including in the US. US equities posted substantial gains as stress in regional banks eased. A relatively small cohort of technology stocks powered the US stock market...[Read More]

Macro Matters June 2023

13 July

(Source: Merlea Macro Matters) Summary Although many investors are expecting a return to normal after inflation subsides and central banks stop raising interest rates, we believe markets are undergoing significant changes. Investors may need...[Read More]

Macro Matters May 2023

11 May

(Source: Merlea Macro Matters) Summary Could it be that a generational shift of investors since the 1980s fails to understand what high rates and central bank tightening really means? The cycle we are in is like no other witnessed since the...[Read More]

Macro Matters March 2023

9 March

(Source: Merlea Macro Matters) Summary While a global recession in 2023 cannot be ruled out, it is not the most widely anticipated outcome at this time. While tightening of monetary policy typically involves increasing interest rates, which...[Read More]

Macro Matters January 2023

16 January

(Source: Merlea Macro Matters) Summary Investors can expect “some light after the storm” in 2023, however inflation, geopolitical uncertainty and intensifying economic divergences will still be the main themes. Our baseline expectation...[Read More]

Macro Matters December 2022

9 December

(Source: Merlea Macro Matters) Summary Prospects for global economic growth remain dim. The global economy will likely grow just 2.2% this year. Global growth of 2.2% would mark one of the slowest paces of growth for the global economy in the...[Read More]

Macro Matters November 2022

17 November

(Source: Merlea Macro Matters) Summary The global economy continues to be on course of a sharp slowdown, with worsening outlook for the rest of 2022 and below-trend growth forecast for 2023. A looming energy crisis in Europe, surging cost of...[Read More]

Macro Matters October 2022

17 October

(Source: Merlea Macro Matters) Summary Central banks around the world have been scrambling to fight soaring high inflation by increasing the cost of borrowing without hurting long-term growth prospects. Adding to the uncertainty and fear are...[Read More]

Macro Matters September 2022

9 September

(Source: Merlea Macro Matters)  Summary  Most major economies experienced maturing trends in their business cycles due to high commodity prices, inflation pressures, and tightening monetary and financial conditions. The US is in the late-cycle...[Read More]