Oliver’s Insights – The economic impact of the 2024 Federal Budget

15 May

The 2024-25 Budget – another surplus, but bigger medium term deficits with more big spending, including on a “Future Made in Australia”   Key points   – The budget this year is expected to show a surplus of $9.3bn thanks to a...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights Seasonal patterns in shares – should we “sell in May and go away”?

8 May

Key points – Seasonal patterns in shares gave rise to the saying “sell in May and go away, buy again on St Leger’s Day.” – However, seasonal patterns can’t always be relied on so while investors should be aware of them, betting on them...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights The art of happiness – economics and the “hedonic treadmill”

1 May

Key points – Despite a big rise in GDP per person, surveyed measures of happiness have been flat to falling in the US and Australia. – Younger people in the US, Canada, Australia and NZ are the least happy age group. This is a major change from...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – Israel/Iran fears and rate cut uncertainty – shares are vulnerable to a bout of volatility but here’s five reasons why the trend will likely remain up

17 April

Key points – After strong gains, shares are vulnerable to a pull back or more volatile/constrained returns than seen so far this year. – The key threats at present are Iran’s attack on Israel which risks escalating the war in the Middle East,...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – Seven things you need to know about the Australian property market

10 April

Key points – The Australian housing market remains far more complicated than optimists and doomsters portray it to be. – Australian housing is expensive and highly indebted; but it’s very diverse; mortgage arrears remain low; interest rates...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – Seven lasting impacts from the COVID pandemic

27 March

Key points – Seven key lasting impacts from the Coronavirus pandemic are: “bigger” government; tighter labour markets; reduced globalisation and increased geopolitical tensions; higher inflation; worse housing affordability; working from...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights Bitcoin to infinity and beyond…again!

13 March

Key points – Bitcoin has made it to new record highs, helped recently by the advent of ETFs that invest directly into it. – While blockchain technology has promise, the use case for Bitcoin is hard to determine making it impossible to...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – 21 great investment quotes

6 March

Introduction Investing can be scary and confusing at times. But the basic principles of successful investing are timeless and quotes from experts help illuminate these. This note revisits a series on insightful quotes on investing I first started a...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – Seven key charts for investors to watch – where are they now?

28 February

Key points – Shares have made it to record highs this year but after strong gains are a bit vulnerable to a near term pull back. – However, we remain upbeat on a 12-month view as falling inflation allows rate cuts and hopefully recession is...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – investment outlook Q&A

14 February

Recession risks, rates and inflation, valuations, geopolitics, the US election and Swiftonomics   Key points – Rate hikes have worked in helping slow inflation and rate cuts are likely this year. Expect a bumpy ride though. – The risk of...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – 05/02/24

7 February

Key points – The Australian Government’s changes to the Stage 3 tax cuts have refocussed attention on the need for tax reform. – The Australian tax system has five key problems: it’s heavily reliant on income tax; it’s complicated by...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights Falling inflation – what does it mean for investors?

17 January

Key points –  Inflation is in retreat thanks to improved supply and cooling demand. A further fall is likely this year. –  Australian inflation remains relatively high – but this mainly reflects lags rather than a more inflation prone...[Read More]

End of year wrap 2023 – What we learnt and where to next

20 December

In this webinar, join AMP’s Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, and Diana Mousina, Deputy Chief Economist, as they reflect on 2023 and answer the most asked questions impacting the year ahead. CLICK HERE to view the...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – 2023 saw the return of Goldilocks, but what’s in store for 2024 for investors?

13 December

Key points –  The five key themes for 2023 were: better than feared growth; disinflation; peak interest rates (probably in Australia too); lots of geopolitical threats but not as bad as feared; and AI hit the big time. This boosted shares and...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – The RBA leaves rates on hold – have we finally reached the top?

7 December

Key points – At its December meeting the RBA left rates on hold but retained a tightening bias with still relatively hawkish commentary. – Our concern remains that the RBA has tightened more than necessary with a high risk of recession next...[Read More]